TRUE cities could save 41,000 lives with ambitious emission-reduction policies
Reducing vehicle emissions in cities can lengthen lives and help children breathe easier, and new analysis shows cities that have partnered with the TRUE Initiative could save upwards of 41,000 lives by reducing road transport emissions through 2040.
New research once again emphasizes the huge potential cities hold in combatting the health impacts of transportation-related air pollution. If a smart combination of policies and a rapid shift to electric vehicles were achieved globally, it’s estimated that 1.9 million premature deaths and 1.4 million new children’s asthma cases could be avoided worldwide by 2040.
This new study, led by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the TRUE Initiative’s technical partner, and funded by the FIA Foundation, modeled various policy scenarios, individually and in combination, to determine their potential to reduce the public health impacts of vehicle emissions. The study was recently published in Environmental Research Letters.
Cities offer the greatest opportunity to save lives
The study examined the global health impacts of vehicle emissions in more than 180 countries and over 13,000 urban areas, covering 99% of the global population. The most ambitious policy scenario modelled in the paper assumes the implementation of more stringent emissions standards, the uptake of electric vehicles and scrappage of older, dirtier vehicles, and a clean-up of the electricity grid to maximize the benefits of electric vehicles.
Cities with dense populations and heavy traffic hold the highest potential to save lives and reduce the rates of children’s asthma with new ambitious policies. The research shows that across the top ten cities with the greatest potential to improve health outcomes, 98,000 premature deaths and 242,000 new pediatric asthma cases could be avoided. The number is quite staggering for pediatric asthma cases, as these top ten cities only comprise 6% of the world’s population but roughly 17% of preventable asthma cases globally through 2040.
Among the cities with the largest potential health benefits (shown in Figure 1), five have already taken the first steps towards tackling road transport pollution by partnering with the TRUE Initiative to measure and analyze real-world vehicle emissions. These include Jakarta, Delhi, Seoul, Mexico City, and New York City.
While national action will be needed to achieve these full health benefits, cities play a critical role by serving as first-movers and case studies for scaling up action to the national or subnational level. The findings suggest that implementation of local city-level policies, like clean-air zones and an accelerated shift to electric transport, could meaningfully improve public health outcomes in less time than the lifespan of a typical car.
The case for TRUE cities
The TRUE Initiative has now partnered with 20 cities around the world, measuring and analyzing the real-world emissions performance of vehicles in urban conditions and identifying policy solutions to improve air quality. This study identified the ten TRUE cities globally which hold the greatest potential to save lives and prevent new asthma cases. In total, these TRUE cities could save 41,000 lives and prevent 134,000 new childhood asthma cases through 2040. Together, these cities account for the equivalent of nearly half of the health benefits achievable across the top 10 global cities noted above.
Many TRUE cities are already pioneering bold emission mitigation strategies, including the implementation of low-emission zones in London, Paris, Seoul, Brussels, Sofia, and Warsaw. Cities including Bogotá, New York City, London, Seoul, and São Paulo have additionally signed the Zero Emission Vehicles Declaration, committing to work towards 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for new cars and vans globally by 2040.
While great progress is underway in these cities, this new research demonstrates the importance of continued momentum in adopting further and more stringent emission control policies in cities worldwide.
